Baker Mayfield vs Sam Darnold
Baker Mayfield holds a 20.8% edge in Superflex dynasty value.Updated 9/19/2026
THE CASE FOR MAYFIELD
Mayfield is the steadier bet for 2026+ job security after reestablishing himself as a competent starter in Tampa Bay, which matters in dynasty more than short-term spikes. His archetype is a mid-QB2 who can string together usable weeks with solid weapons and a stable offensive environment, keeping his weekly floor intact. With an 8.9% market premium, you’re paying for a clearer multi-year runway and fewer “benched by October” outcomes.
THE CASE FOR DARNOLD
Darnold’s appeal is price-to-upside: if he locks in as Seattle’s starter, his value can jump quickly from the low-end starter bucket to the safer QB2 tier. He’s younger and typically cheaper to acquire in trades, making him a flexible bet for managers who want optionality rather than paying for certainty. The risk is obvious—Seattle can pivot quickly if performance dips, so his dynasty value is much more fragile week to week.
VERDICT BY TEAM SITUATION
Mayfield—pay the premium for higher odds of stable starts and fewer catastrophic value swings in-season.
Darnold—take the discount and play for a value jump, but be ready to flip fast if he starts hot.
If the price gap is truly only ~9%, lean Mayfield; if you can get Darnold plus anything meaningful on top, take Darnold.
12% of champions
Baker Mayfield was on 838 championship rosters
Sam Darnold — outside top 50 champion players
FREQUENTLY ASKED
Worth more?
Mayfield is worth more because his starter probability over the next 1–2 seasons is materially stronger, matching the ~9% gap.
Trade?
I’d trade Mayfield for Darnold plus a 2nd, or trade Darnold for Mayfield if it only costs a small sweetener (3rd/throw-in).
Superflex?
In superflex, prioritize Mayfield for contenders, while Darnold is a classic cheaper QB2/bridge who becomes a sell window if he strings together early starts.
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RESEARCH & TOOLS
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78.4% had a top-10 RB. The real champion profile from 9,983 rosters.
Stars vs Depth
Champions held 38.3% of value in 3 players. Concentrate, don't spread.
Who Wins Lopsided Trades?
The value "loser" wins titles more often. Don't fear the overpay.
Championship DNA Players
Bijan 23%, Puka 19.3%. The players who keep showing up on title teams.