Isaiah Likely vs Jake Ferguson
Isaiah Likely holds a 33.4% edge in Superflex dynasty value.Updated 9/18/2026
THE CASE FOR LIKELY
Likely’s 4.9% edge in SF value suggests the market is baking in a better ceiling outcome (either a larger target share or more efficient spike weeks). At 26.3, he’s slightly younger and still in the prime window where TE breakouts can consolidate into multi-year production. If his role is trending up, he’s the better bet to gain value rather than simply hold it.
THE CASE FOR FERGUSON
Ferguson is the more bankable weekly starter profile: steady routes, usable target volume, and a role that typically translates to predictable TE1/2 scoring. At 27.5, he’s not old for a tight end and can give contenders reliable points without needing a “breakout” narrative. His cost being slightly lower than Likely makes him a strong points-per-dollar buy if you’re optimizing for 2025 lineups.
VERDICT BY TEAM SITUATION
Lean Ferguson for stability and startability unless you specifically need to swing for ceiling, in which case Likely is fine at the small premium.
Lean Likely because he’s marginally younger and more likely to add dynasty value if his role expands, while Ferguson is more of a value-preservation play.
It’s a near coin-flip; take the cheaper one in your league or the one you believe has the clearer path to 90+ targets.
FREQUENTLY ASKED
Worth more?
Likely is worth a bit more right now (about a 5% edge), but it’s close enough that context and team build should decide it.
Trade?
If contending, try to tier from Likely to Ferguson plus a small sweetener; if rebuilding, tier from Ferguson to Likely if the manager will do it straight up.
Superflex?
The SF values are essentially equivalent, so don’t force a big add—keep the swap small (late pick/throw-in) if you’re moving either way.
RUN THIS TRADE YOURSELF
See exactly what Isaiah Likely and Jake Ferguson are worth side-by-side in our Trade Calculator.
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